Memory Market Outlook: Shortages, Pricing Pressures & Industry Response

1. Drivers Behind Upcoming Memory Shortages & Price Increases

• Rapid expansion of AI workloads is redirecting fabrication capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM
• Constrained production availability for mainstream PC memory and components
• CPU supply remains relatively stable, though prioritised for high-performance segments
• Upward pricing pressure expected across CPUs, NAND, and DRAM
• Supply shortages projected through 2026, with DRAM potentially extending into 2027–2028 and NAND beyond

2. Impact on PC Manufacturers & End Users

• PC pricing expected to rise throughout 2026
• Entry-level and mid-range systems likely to ship with reduced RAM and SSD configurations
• Extended lead times and tighter product availability
• Greater emphasis on forward planning and inventory management

3. Strategic Mitigation Measures

• Secure long-term supply agreements for key components
• Diversify supplier networks and rebalance product portfolios
• Strengthen demand forecasting and inventory optimisation

4. Industry Response

Component Manufacturers

• DRAM: New fabrication plants under development (e.g. SK Hynix), though production ramp-up will take time
• Emergence of new Chinese entrants, constrained by US trade restrictions
• CPUs: Increased output and stronger vendor collaboration

PC Vendors

• Strategic inventory stockpiling
• Implementation of DRAM purchasing controls
• Expansion of supplier ecosystems

5. Historical Reference: NAND Shortage (2017)

• SSD prices increased by up to 21%
• PC prices rose by as much as 30%
• Slower adoption of SSD technology
• Global PC demand declined by approximately 10%

6. Historical Reference: CPU Shortage (2018)

• PC prices increased by up to 30%
• CPU pricing rose by approximately 21%
• Limited impact on overall CPU product mix
• PC demand declined by around 7%

7. Key Takeaways

• Previous shortages triggered short-term price surges rather than long-term disruption
• Storage adoption rates slowed during supply constraints
• CPU shortages showed limited structural impact on the market

8. 2026 Market Outlook

• Concurrent shortages across multiple component categories
• NAND pricing projected to increase by approximately 50% year-on-year
• DRAM pricing expected to rise by around 25% year-on-year
• Memory cost share in laptops forecast to grow from ~10% to ~20%
• Storage cost share expected to reach ~15%

9. Anticipated Market Impact

• Reduced RAM configurations in entry-level systems
• Slower transition toward higher-capacity storage solutions